FINAL TURN FOR Y2K PROBLEMS

(Professor Dr.Srisakdi Charmonman)

1. Introduction

The year 2000 problem is said to be the most serious business problem for our century. The problem is far beyond a software issue. Simply defined, it is the risk of costly interruptions or liability to your business arising from product or service failures that stem from the mishandling of dates.

In today's highly interconnected world, it is clear that a failure in one place can quickly affect people and organizations in other places. You may not be directly affected, but colleagues in other cities, regions, and continents may be.

The year 2000 challenge affects and system, equipment or product that uses date data. It arises from the nearly universal practice over the years in academia, government and business of using two digits rather than four to designate the calendar year (e.g. DD/MM/YY). It also has its roots in the common practice of using two digits to shorthand references to the year (just as people commonly refer to "the class of 99" instead of "the class of 1999"). Although this practice was common, it can lead to incorrect results whenever computer systems, or microchips deal with the data for years:

• arithmetic operations, e.g. "00-99 =-99" as opposed to "2000-1999 = 1".
• Comparisons, e.g. "99>00" as opposed to "1999<2000".
• Sorting, e.g. "00, 01, 98, 99" as opposed to "1998, 1999, 2000, 2001".

Infrastructure elements that may be disrupted include production, distribution, and processing systems for water, sewage, and electricity.

All of these systems rely heavily on computers for controlling and monitoring. If those computers fail, the systems can quickly run amuck; most are provided with automatic shutdown procedures that can be reversed only with lengthy manual operations.

Failure of the infrastructure could quickly ripple around the world. Afire in a computer chip fabrication building on the Pacific Rim led to a worldwide increase in chip (and computer) prices in the early 1990s. Industries increasingly rely on just-in-time deliveries of parts for their assembly lines-and those just-in-time deliveries rely on telecommunication. Bank vaults require electricity to be opened; air conditioners need not only electricity but also water in many cases.

Increasingly, computers are networked and interconnected. The worldwide network for telephony, broadcasting, and the Internet essential are giant computers.

2. Y2K Problems

The year 2000 problem is actually a collection of problems that occur when computers deal with dates in the 2000s. The simplest example of this problem is the use of two digits for years, e.g. 97, 98, 99, etc. The twentieth century is still implied but is no longer correct.

For example, to calculate a person's age, a computer may take the current year and subtract that person's birth year from it. In 1998, the age of someone born in 1971 could be computed as follows:

98
-71
27

Two years later, in 2000 the age of that same person could be computed in this way:

00
-71
29

Although you can immediately see the problem, many computers and computer programs blithely continue on with their processing: events that follow previous event are recorded as being before them (00 being a smaller value than 98), and logical impossibilities (a negative age) work their way into calculations and databases. Furthermore, these logical impossibilities may cause not just corrupted data but also catastrophic computer failures.

The problem occurs the first time a computer program has to handle dates in 2000. For people dealing with 30-year bonds and mortgages, the problem started in 1970. For accountants preparing year-end tax statements, the problem will hit after close of 2000 (that is, in 2001).

In some cases, the problem has already hit and in number of those cases, it has gone unnoticed. Databases have already been corrupted and incorrect calculations performed; only later will this become evident.

3. Examples of Y2K Problem

Don't, however, be lulled into thinking that these anecdotes are interesting only as sound bites during the feel-good portion of a nightly newscast. They are symptomatic of potential worldwide disruptions in business, transportation, finance, and much more. Let's get a little more serious. Say you make a deposit to you personal or business bank account at the end of 1999, then writes a check or make transfer in 2000. If the bank's computer regards 00 in the date field as 1900, it will treat the withdrawal as if it were made before the deposit, and your personal and business accounts will be overdrawn.

Examples of potentially typical, albeit humorous, repercussions of the Year 2000 problem.

In 1992 Mary Bandar of Winona, Minnesota, was invited to join kindergarten classes when her name turned up among others identified in a database search for people born in'88; at the time Bandar was 104 years old.

C.G. Blodgett's autoinsurance premium tripled when he was reclassified after his 101st birthday as a highrisk youthful driver.

4. Potential Y2K Problems in Daily Life

Unfortunately, the year 2000 problem does not just affect a few financial records. It is a widespread problem with many implications. Consider the kinds of hazards that might occur in the 5 industries listed in Table 1

The obvious aspects of the year 2000 problem may well be repaired in time. What is most troubling are the hidden manifestations of the year 2000 problem that will escape notice in time for repair to the end of the century. Some of the end of the century. Some of the unexpected problems associated with the year 2000 issue that affect daily life might include the following, although these are from a worst – case scenario and hopefully will not occur at all.

5. Y2K Situation in Thailand

Year 2000 Problem or Millennium Bug is considered as the national problem, which the government has to be the leader and supporter in solving it. It is clearly shown that every business, institution or individual using or relying on computers or microprocessors have to face. This affects the way of operation and its productivity. Moreover, it will destroy the mage of our country. From the survey of Gartner Group, Thailand is one of many slowest countries in solving the Y2K problem.

The government sector plays an important role in solving Y2K problems as well as the private sector as we can see from several activities. For example, on February 18th, 1999 Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai gave an opening speech at the "Conference on Y2K Project Management and Contingency Planning" at the Government House. Over 300 people from all government agencies joined force and confirmed their commitment to the government's strong policy to provide a smooth transition to the year 2000.

6. Y2K Situation World Wide

6.1 U.S. Banks Said Ready for Y2K.

Washington (AP) Federal banking regulators reassure the public that the nation's banking system is ready to deal with Y2K. 99.7 percent of all federal supervised financial institutions have finished their renovations and tests of their systems. And the Federal had ordered up extra currency to meet demands from Americans worried about getting access to their deposits in the new year, no need for public to hold extra cash.

6.2 Emergency Fund Set for Y2K Problems.

Washington – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Friday it has prepared a special emergency fund to cover any balance of payment problem that result from Y2K problem.

The fund will begin October 15 and expire March 31, 2000. It will allow any member country of the IMP access to as much as half of its borrowing limits for a six-month period.

6.3 Worry for the Pentagon: Overseas Bases When the Year '00 Dawns.

Washington declared itself ready to deal with Y2K problem, the Pentagon is now worrying that US. Troops and military dependents stationed overseas may face the problems from electricity, water system and phone lines.

Senior Pentagon officials Said about 40 % of the 130 key foreign bases were ready for the year 2000 and the numbers were growing up.

The military anticipated some disruption among foreign air traffic control system, seaport cargo handling equipment and automated security network but those would not affect war-fighting ability. The backup equipment might be sent by mid October to against the possible problems.

The Pentagon improved the reliability of the overall assessment by dispatching the ad hoc expert teams from the military, US. Embassies, the Energy, Commerce and Transportation Departments and the Central Intelligence Agent to Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.

The military settled the contingency plan to deals with the problems that might or might not happen in those foreign bases.

6.4 Japan PM to Suggest Food Stockpile for Y2K.

TOKYO (Reuters) Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi will recommend that all Japanese stockpile several day's worth of food and water as a precaution to Y2K problem and also checking balances in the bank accounrs prior to December 31, 1999.

But Japanese not only keep supplies of food and water on hand in case of earthquake, most also stock up basic goods prior to the new year's holiday anyway, because the shops will be closed for 4 days during new year event.

Japan's 3 major airlines also test flights and proved the aviation industry is ready for Y2K.

6.5 Japan Workers on Guard for Y2K Bug.

TOKYO (AP) – About 100,000 technicians from top Japanese electronic companies (Mitsubishi Electric Corp., Fujitsu Ltd., Toshiba Corp., and IBM Japan) will camp out in their office on Dec 31 to Jan 4 to guard against any computer failures at the turn of the millenium.

Larger companies have invested considerable time and effort for Y2K problem, but the smaller companies which have been through financial difficulties in recent years may not have done as much.

6.6 So Far So Good 'For Y2K indicator in New Zealand.

"A number of utilities and organizations took the opportunity of 9/9/99 to test aspects of their processes for managing Y2K" , said Basil Logan, chairman of the Y2K Readiness Commission Said.

The spread of nines could disrupt systems because some old computers are programmed to read "9999" as a command to shut down. But Logan said so – called "four 9s day" has gone smoothly overnight and so far there had been no reports of incidents at major utilities.

7. Conclusions

The Y2K challenge is a very urgent matter. Responding to the challenge without some analytical discipline in the front-end work could impede achieving timely and cost effective century compliance. Each organization should begin its Y2K program with clearly articulated criteria and then use these criteria to guide the planning and execution of all activities.

It is already quite certain that Y2K problem in Thailand will not be completely solved before year 2000. Perhaps only about 50 % would be solved by December 31, 1999. Large organizations in the private sector can replace the old mainframe computer by newer microcomputers that are physically smaller but less expensive and Y2K compliant.

The organizations in the government sector can not easily replace their mainframes like the private sector because of lack of budget and length of time taken to go through government regulations.

However, if all concerned parties in Thailand join hands in trying to solve the Y2K problems, we will be able to solve all the major problems before the end of 1999 and survive the minor problems in the year 2000.